UK retail plant-based protein sales could double by 2040, Systemiq report finds

A shift toward plant-based proteins in UK retail could see the category nearly double its share of protein sales by 2040, according to a new report from Systemiq, which set out the commercial, environmental, and health case for protein diversification.

• Plant-based proteins accounted for 14% of UK retail protein sales in 2025 and were projected to reach 29% by 2040 under a high-ambition scenario.
• Meat analogues were expected to reach price parity with processed meat by 2028, reducing a key barrier to consumer switching.
• A shift toward plant-based proteins was projected to reduce environmental impacts by 13–16% and increase daily fiber intake by 71%.

The report, Taking Root: The Case for Plant-Based Proteins in UK Retail, examined sales data, consumer trends, and life-cycle impacts across key product categories including meat analogues, legumes, nuts, and minimally processed plant proteins such as tofu and tempeh.

It found that the UK market had returned to growth following a period of volatility, with chilled meat and seafood substitutes increasing 5% in retail sales value between 2024 and 2025. Over the longer term, most plant-based categories had expanded in both value and volume.

Despite this progress, the UK continued to lag behind some European markets. The report pointed to developments in countries such as the Netherlands, where major retailers had already set targets for a 60% plant-based to 40% animal-based protein split by 2030.

Systemiq’s modeling suggested that plant-based proteins could account for 29% of UK retail protein sales by 2040, up from 14% in 2025, driven primarily by growth in legumes and meat analogues. The projection combined historical sales trends with assumptions around price convergence, changing consumer behavior, and increased retailer intervention.

Price dynamics were identified as a central factor shaping future growth. Retail prices for meat analogues had declined steadily over the past decade, while processed meat and seafood prices had risen. Meat analogues were projected to reach price parity with processed meat by 2028, reducing cost-related barriers and making substitution within everyday meals more accessible.

Retailer actions were also expected to play a significant role. The report modeled an uplift linked to interventions such as pricing strategies, improved product placement, and promotional activity, suggesting these levers could materially accelerate adoption beyond underlying consumer trends.

Across product categories, the growth outlook varied. Meat analogues were expected to remain the primary driver of revenue growth, accounting for around 80% of meat substitute value and benefiting from higher price points. Legumes were identified as the largest opportunity in terms of volume growth, supported by positive consumer perceptions but constrained by relatively low awareness and limited convenience formats.

Minimally processed plant proteins, including tofu and tempeh, were already price competitive with meat and in some cases cheaper, with the price gap expected to widen further as animal protein costs increased. Nuts, meanwhile, remained underconsumed, with intake levels estimated to be five times below recommended levels, suggesting further scope for growth beyond traditional snacking occasions.

The report also highlighted a significant opportunity in private-label development. Private-label products accounted for around 15% of plant-based meat substitute sales, compared with approximately 82% in processed meat. Expanding own-label ranges was identified as a key lever for retailers to improve pricing control, increase margins, and drive category development.

Overall, plant-based revenue across the assessed categories was projected to double relative to a business-as-usual scenario by 2040. While plant-based proteins typically generated lower revenue per unit due to lower price points, they were associated with higher and more stable margins compared to meat and seafood.

Beyond retail categories, the report pointed to precision fermentation as an additional pathway for protein diversification. By enabling the replacement of functional animal-derived ingredients within existing products, such as egg white in baked goods, precision fermentation could deliver significant environmental gains without requiring direct changes in consumer behavior.

Environmental impacts were a central part of the analysis. A shift toward plant-based proteins across the assessed categories was projected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, land use, and water use by 13–16% compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Emissions reductions were the most pronounced, reflecting the substantial differences between animal and plant protein production systems.

The report also highlighted potential health benefits. Increased consumption of plant-based proteins was projected to raise average daily fiber intake by 71% compared to the 2040 baseline, helping to close around 11% of the UK’s existing fiber gap. The associated health benefits were estimated at £108 million per year (US$135 million).

To capture these opportunities, Systemiq outlined a set of actions for retailers across sourcing, in-store execution, and system-level coordination. Expanding own-label offerings was identified as a primary sourcing lever, enabling greater control over pricing and supply. In-store strategies such as cross-merchandising plant-based and animal-based products, combined with clearer value communication, were seen as important for converting consumer interest into repeat purchasing behavior.

At a broader level, the report emphasized the importance of standardized measurement and reporting. Establishing consistent methods for tracking plant- to animal-protein sales ratios could support transparency and enable retailers to set and monitor targets. Examples from other markets suggested that coordinated reporting across the sector could strengthen signals to investors and policymakers and help accelerate the transition.

The findings suggested that while consumer demand for plant-based options continued to grow, the pace and scale of change in the UK would depend heavily on how retailers shaped pricing, availability, and visibility across their portfolios.