Study warns much of the world must cut food-related emissions to stay within 2°C climate limit

A new global analysis suggests that nearly half of the world’s population was consuming diets in 2012 that generated more greenhouse gas emissions than the level compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 2°C target. The study, published in Environmental Research: Food Systems, indicates that dietary change will need to be widespread by mid-century if the world hopes to remain within its remaining food-sector carbon budget.

Researchers combined national consumption-based emissions data with estimates of food access by income group to evaluate how different parts of the global population contribute to food-related emissions. They found that around 2.7 billion people exceeded the per-capita emissions cap consistent with the 2°C pathway in 2012. When considering the much larger population projected for 2050, the picture becomes even more stark: 91% of people in 2012 consumed diets above the future allowable threshold, meaning climate-aligned eating patterns would require change almost everywhere.

The food system generates roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, with major contributions from livestock methane, fertilizer-driven nitrous oxide and land-use impacts. The authors said understanding who contributes most is essential for designing fair and effective mitigation strategies.

One of the clearest patterns in the data is the degree of inequality. The study shows that the top 15% of dietary emitters produce 30% of all food-related emissions. That share matches the emissions of the entire bottom half of the global population. High emitters are not necessarily the world’s richest individuals but often the highest-income groups within countries where meat consumption and emissions-intensive production practices are widespread. South American countries feature prominently among top contributors, reflecting strong demand for beef and the high emissions intensity of extensive grazing systems. The United States also stands out, with more than a quarter of the world’s highest food-related emitters coming from the country.

Some countries defy expectations. The Central African Republic, despite high levels of poverty, has one of the most uneven distributions of dietary emissions. The wealthiest 10% of its population rank among the highest emitters globally, driven by a combination of concentrated income and particularly emissions-intensive food production systems.

The authors emphasised that the challenge is not only about cutting emissions from high-impact diets. Around 9% of the world’s population in 2012 consumed so few calories that their emissions fell below the minimum level associated with a healthy diet. Allowing these groups to eat more nutritious foods would barely affect the global emissions cap. The researchers estimate that it would take just 0.4% of the global population reducing their footprint to create room for the lowest-consuming groups to reach adequate dietary intake.

That highlights a broader tension: food is both a major contributor to climate change and an essential human need. Reducing emissions while improving access to nutrition remains one of the most complex aspects of the global climate challenge.

The study suggests that many people will need to shift toward diets with lower emissions, particularly by eating less beef and other animal-sourced foods. The authors note that cutting beef consumption alone would have the largest immediate impact for high-emitting groups. For many, small changes could help align personal diets with climate goals, while continuing to support adequate nutrition.

As the world approaches 2050, the findings underscore the scale of dietary change required. Food-system emissions cannot remain at current levels if the Paris targets are to be met. For hundreds of millions of people, adjustments will be modest. For billions, they will need to be substantial.