Rising temperatures threaten global food security, Aalto University study warns

A new study published in Nature Food suggests that rising global temperatures could significantly reduce crop diversity and put a third of global food production at risk. The research, conducted by Aalto University, examined the effects of temperature, precipitation, and aridity changes on 30 major food crops, revealing that low-latitude regions will experience the greatest losses if warming exceeds 1.5°C.

According to lead researcher Sara Heikonen, these losses extend beyond production volumes. “The range of food crops available for cultivation could decrease significantly in certain areas. That would reduce food security and make it more difficult to get adequate calories and protein,” she explained.

The study found that up to half of global food crop production could be affected, with staple crops such as rice, maize, wheat, potatoes, and soybeans particularly vulnerable. These five crops account for over two-thirds of the world’s caloric intake. Tropical root crops like yam, a crucial food source in many low-income regions, are also at risk. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be the most severely impacted, with almost three-quarters of current production threatened if global temperatures rise above 3°C.

While mid- and high-latitude regions may retain their productive land, the zones suitable for specific crops will shift. Some regions could see an increase in crop diversity, with temperate fruits like pears becoming more viable in northern areas. However, these benefits may not be as straightforward as they seem.

Professor Matti Kummu, the study’s senior author, cautioned that other challenges could arise. “We showed that there’s climatic potential, but warming might bring new pests and extreme weather events, which our model doesn’t include. So the situation isn’t really that black and white.”

Many of the regions facing the highest risks from climate change already struggle with food sufficiency and economic vulnerabilities. While improved access to fertilizers and irrigation could enhance yields in low-latitude countries, ongoing global warming adds uncertainty.

“In many low-latitude areas, especially in Africa, yields are small compared to similar areas elsewhere in the world. Higher yields could be achieved through better resource access and reducing food losses in the production and storage chain,” Kummu noted. “However, even more actions will likely be needed, including crop selection and novel breeding approaches.”

For mid- and high-latitude countries, adaptation will require flexibility. Changing climate conditions will alter which crops thrive, requiring farmers and policymakers to anticipate and respond to shifting agricultural patterns. The globalized food system means that the effects of regional agricultural disruptions will be felt worldwide, making coordinated action essential.

“If we want to secure our food system in the future, we need to both mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects,” Heikonen emphasized. “Even if the biggest changes are in equatorial regions, we will all feel the effects. We need to act together to address these problems.”