GFI Europe warns rising meat demand is fuelling infectious disease risk as protein diversification gains urgency

As global demand for meat continues to climb, pressure is mounting on governments to confront what GFI Europe described as a growing public health blind spot: the link between industrial animal agriculture, infectious disease risk and antimicrobial resistance.

In an article published on 17 February 2026, Alex Mayers, Managing Director of GFI Europe, argued that continuing to meet rising meat consumption through intensive livestock systems increased the likelihood of supply shocks, biodiversity loss, antibiotic resistance and future pandemics. Demand for meat is forecast to grow by 52% by 2050.

• GFI Europe has warned that industrial livestock expansion is increasing risks linked to pandemics, antimicrobial resistance and food supply shocks.

• Meat demand is forecast to rise by 52% by 2050, intensifying pressure on animal agriculture systems.

• Analysis commissioned by GFI Europe has identified a €111 billion (US$120 billion) economic opportunity for alternative proteins in the EU with the right policy support.

Public health discussions often focus on diet-related chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes and heart disease. However, Mayers contended that the infectious disease dimension receives far less attention, despite warnings from the World Health Organization that pandemics, antimicrobial resistance and climate change rank among the most significant global health threats.

Industrial farming systems have become central to meeting demand for cheap and widely consumed meat products. But these systems have also been vulnerable to animal disease outbreaks that disrupt food production and global trade. In 2025, the UK reported that 1.8 million farmed birds were culled within three months following an outbreak of bird flu, while Germany announced the culling of a further 400,000 birds. African swine fever has continued to spread across Europe in recent years, leading to the culling of hundreds of thousands of pigs and wild boar and costing billions of euros.

In Estonia, 28,500 pigs were culled at the country’s largest pig farm after infection was detected in 2025. In Latvia, more than 20,000 pigs were culled on an industrial farm following a separate outbreak. Such responses have led to shortages and price increases in poultry and egg markets, as well as trade disruptions in the pig meat sector.

Mayers argued that heavy reliance on intensive livestock systems created structural vulnerability in food supply chains. He cited research conducted with HarrisX indicating that in Germany and the UK, 54% of consumers wanted either to increase plant-based foods in their diets or reduce meat consumption, but faced barriers linked to availability and familiarity.

The impact of livestock-linked disease has also extended beyond farms. A 2024 report examining the effect of bird flu on wild birds in the UK found that multiple seabird species had entered catastrophic decline. Great skua populations fell by 76% in just two years. Globally, outbreaks have been reported even in isolated Antarctic regions, affecting seabirds, elephant seals and fur seals.

Today, around 70% of the total biomass of birds on Earth consists of domesticated birds, primarily chickens, reflecting the scale of intensive poultry production. High-density farming conditions can create reservoirs for disease, potentially prolonging outbreaks even when pathogens originate in wild populations.

Antimicrobial resistance has added another layer of concern. Although antibiotics remain critical to human medicine, a significant proportion of antibiotic use in Europe continues to occur in farmed animals. The overuse of these medicines increases the opportunity for bacteria to develop resistance. The EU is projected to miss four of its five antimicrobial resistance targets, with drug-resistant infections already responsible for 35,000 deaths annually in Europe.

German dietary guidelines recommend limiting meat intake to around 300g per week, or 40g per day. Estimates suggest that aligning global meat consumption with such levels could reduce worldwide antibiotic use by two-thirds.

Mayers maintained that relying solely on voluntary dietary change would be insufficient. Instead, he called for public investment in diversifying protein production, including plant-based, fermentation-made and cultivated meat technologies. Such products, he argued, could deliver familiar formats and taste profiles without the same reliance on antibiotics or industrial livestock systems.

Foodborne illness remains the most common route of transmission from farmed animals to humans in Europe, and reported rates have risen in recent years. In rare but severe cases, zoonotic pathogens have triggered pandemics. The 1918 Spanish flu, which caused more than 20 million deaths in a single year, is widely believed to have originated in birds.

GFI Europe has argued that shifting a greater proportion of food production toward plants and fungi could reduce habitat destruction and deforestation, lowering the frequency of contact between humans, farmed animals and wildlife. Plant- and fungi-based systems also carry lower risks of incubating or transmitting pathogens that infect humans. Intensive livestock production, by contrast, places large numbers of animals in confined conditions that can weaken immune systems and facilitate pathogen evolution.

Manure and slurry generated by livestock farms can also create environmental pathways for disease transmission if not managed effectively.

While recommendations to increase plant consumption have long featured in public health guidance, meat consumption in Europe has remained high. Mayers highlighted plant-based meat as one of the fastest-growing segments within plant-based foods, outpacing more traditional options such as tofu in supermarket adoption.

He acknowledged that barriers remain around taste, price and familiarity. However, he pointed to technological advances in precision fermentation and cultivated meat as areas with potential for further improvement.

A recent analysis conducted by Systemiq and commissioned by GFI Europe’s policy team estimated that alternative proteins could represent a €111 billion (US$120 billion) economic opportunity within the European Union under supportive policy conditions. The report outlined potential co-benefits in economic growth, public health and climate resilience.

“There is no silver bullet,” Mayers wrote, “but protein diversification is an essential part of the solution.”

He concluded that without deliberate policy action to diversify protein sources and reduce dependence on intensive livestock systems, rising global meat demand could amplify existing health and environmental risks. GFI Europe’s research and grant programs, he added, are focused on removing technical bottlenecks and accelerating development of affordable, scalable alternatives as part of a broader effort to build a more resilient food system.