EU climate advisers call for dietary shifts and livestock reductions in overhaul of agri-food policy

Europe’s agri-food system must undergo a systemic transformation – including shifts in dietary patterns, reductions in livestock production and new policy frameworks – if the EU is to meet its climate targets while protecting food security and rural livelihoods.

That is the conclusion of a major new report from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, which examines how European agriculture and food systems must evolve to align with the bloc’s climate neutrality goal for 2050.

The report argues that the agri-food system sits at the center of Europe’s climate challenge. It is both highly vulnerable to climate impacts and a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, meaning progress in the sector will be essential for achieving the EU’s broader climate objectives.

• The EU agri-food system accounts for roughly one-third of total EU greenhouse gas emissions, according to the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.

• The report concludes that systemic changes – including dietary shifts, reduced livestock numbers and policy reform – are required to align the sector with EU climate targets.

• Advisers recommend reforms to agricultural subsidies, greenhouse gas pricing for agriculture and policies encouraging healthier, plant-rich diets and reduced food waste.

The report states that the EU agri-food system currently accounts for approximately one-third of the bloc’s net greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural production is responsible for the majority of those emissions, contributing more than half of the system’s total footprint.

At the same time, climate change is already affecting the sector. Droughts, floods, heatwaves, pests and diseases are increasingly disrupting agricultural productivity, ecosystems and rural livelihoods.

Losses from extreme weather events affecting European agriculture are estimated to average around €28 billion annually today and could rise to roughly €40 billion per year by mid-century.

The report warns that climate mitigation progress within agriculture has been relatively slow compared with other parts of the economy. While overall emissions from the EU agri-food system have declined since 2005, reductions in agricultural non-CO₂ emissions – primarily methane from livestock and nitrous oxide from fertilized soils – have been limited.

Because biological processes drive many of these emissions, agriculture is expected to remain one of the main sources of residual greenhouse gases even as other sectors decarbonize.

The advisory board states that incremental improvements in agricultural practices will be important but will not be sufficient on their own to deliver the emissions reductions required.

The report categorizes potential solutions across a spectrum from technical improvements to more structural changes within the agri-food system.

Technical options include measures such as improving fertilizer management, enhancing soil carbon storage and adopting more climate-resilient crop varieties. These approaches can reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of agricultural production without fundamentally changing what is produced.

However, the report argues that deeper structural changes will also be necessary to achieve long-term climate goals.

These changes may involve adjustments to production systems, land use and consumption patterns, as well as broader transformations across the agri-food value chain.

One of the key structural elements identified in the report is a gradual shift in dietary patterns toward more plant-rich diets.

The analysis highlights that current European consumption patterns are characterized by high intake of red and processed meat and comparatively low consumption of plant-based foods such as legumes, nuts, fruits and vegetables.

This imbalance contributes both to greenhouse gas emissions and to significant public-health costs linked to diet-related diseases.

According to the report, better alignment between dietary patterns and nutritional guidelines could simultaneously reduce environmental impacts and improve health outcomes.

Such shifts would also have implications for agricultural production systems. The advisory board notes that a systemic transition toward climate-compatible food systems is likely to involve a certain reduction in livestock numbers, particularly ruminant animals such as cattle and sheep, which are among the most emissions-intensive sources of agricultural greenhouse gases.

The report emphasizes that these changes would need to be carefully managed to address potential socioeconomic impacts on livestock farmers and supply chains.

To support the transition, the advisory board outlines a set of policy recommendations aimed at aligning EU agricultural and climate policy.

One of the most significant proposals involves reforming the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the EU’s primary framework for supporting farmers.

The report concludes that some existing CAP payments provide incentives for greenhouse gas-intensive practices. In particular, certain coupled payments that support livestock production are identified as potentially reinforcing emissions-intensive systems.

The advisory board recommends gradually phasing out the most climate-harmful payments over future CAP periods while redirecting funding toward measures that support climate mitigation, ecosystem services and resilience.

Such reforms would need to be implemented gradually and accompanied by targeted support to help farmers adapt to changing production conditions.

Another major recommendation in the report is the introduction of a greenhouse gas pricing system for agriculture.

Currently, agricultural emissions are largely outside existing EU carbon pricing mechanisms. The advisory board argues that applying the “polluter pays” principle to the sector could create stronger incentives to reduce emissions and enhance carbon removals.

Under the proposed framework, emissions pricing could be introduced gradually and designed to reflect the specific characteristics of agricultural emissions.

The report suggests that such a system could cover energy-related emissions, agricultural non-CO₂ emissions and land-based carbon fluxes, potentially through separate but coordinated mechanisms.

Revenue generated from emissions pricing could then be reinvested in climate adaptation, mitigation measures and transition support for farmers.

The advisory board stresses that no single policy instrument will be sufficient to transform the agri-food system.

Instead, the report calls for a coherent policy mix combining climate mitigation, adaptation and food policy measures.

This approach would include targeted transition support for farmers, improved risk-management tools to cope with climate impacts and new food policies aimed at encouraging healthier diets and reducing food waste.

Such policies would need to engage actors across the entire food value chain, including food processors, retailers and consumers.

The report also highlights the importance of maintaining competitiveness and avoiding carbon leakage – where emissions shift outside the EU due to stricter domestic regulations.

To address these risks, policymakers may need to combine domestic reforms with trade measures and international cooperation.

Transition must balance climate and livelihoods

Despite the scale of the transformation proposed, the advisory board emphasizes that maintaining agricultural livelihoods and food security must remain central to the transition.

Agriculture continues to play a critical economic and social role across Europe, particularly in rural regions. Farmers also face significant financial and practical barriers to adopting new production practices, including limited access to capital and increasing climate risks.

As a result, the report calls for substantial public and private investment to support the transition toward climate-resilient and lower-emission farming systems.

Diversification of crops, production systems and income sources could also strengthen resilience while opening new economic opportunities in rural areas.

Overall, the report concludes that the current trajectory of the EU agri-food system is unlikely to deliver the emissions reductions required to meet climate targets.

Without deeper structural changes, the EU would have to rely heavily on carbon dioxide removal technologies to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 – an approach the advisory board warns could increase risks and long-term costs.

Instead, the authors argue that a systemic transition combining technological innovation, policy reform and shifts in consumption patterns offers a more resilient path forward.

Such a transition would involve changes not only in agricultural production but across the entire food system, from farms and processors to retailers and consumers.

As the report makes clear, addressing climate change in the agri-food sector will require coordinated action across multiple policy areas and sustained efforts from governments, businesses and society.